The iranian hostage crisis
The iranian hostage crisis, the gulf war, and the future of oil as a political weapon in middle eastern countries
| Oil was an important political weapon for OPEC countries in the 1970s, when two American presidents were indirectly toppled by it: Nixon and Carter. Oil prices "went through the roof," so to speak, twice, in 1973, and again after the Iranian revolution of 1979 after the complete cessation of Iranian oil export. American foreign policy toward the Middle East also led to high level American political involvement in the region from the 1970s to the 1990s. On the other hand, besides OPEC, there were also other ME reactions toward Anglo-American presence there, including the Iranian revolution, partly targeting America as the force to influence liberalization of Iran, and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the attempt to establish Iraqi local hegemony in the ME in a world that was "converting" to capitalism against a waning communism, and "worshipping" the power and capital of the US, the center of capitalism. Starting in the 1990s, there seemed also an escalation of US involvement in the ME, represented by the Gulf War of 1991, and the current talk of an attack on Iraq. |
1. OPEC and Iran: twin forces that brought down Jimmy Carter
The Iranian revolution of 1978:
An Islamic fundamentalist reaction to what was perceived as overwhelming modernization, including urban overcrowding, polarization of the wealthy and the poor, corruption, and Western style liberalization. Led by Ayatolla Khomeini who had been in exile in France.
The U.S. role: the growing closeness of U.S. to Iran under Jimmy Carter and the U.S. policy to encourage liberalization and human rights in Iran made the U.S. a target of attack in the Islamic fundamentalist revolution of 1978.
OPEC raising oil prices:
The Iranian revolution led to an end of Iranian oil production and export, driving up international oil prices. OPEC took advantage, and further cut back on oil production, driving up prices even more.
The Iranian hostage crisis and the failed rescue mission.
The U.S. acceptance of Shah Pahlavi for medical treatment in the U.S. led to the Iranian hostage crisis, when American embassy staff in Teheran were held hostage in January 1979, who were not released until Reagan swore into office in 1980.
How Carter lost the reelection: surging oil prices and cutback on oil led to the drop of Carter's popular support, and failure to rescue the US hostages added to his unpopularity.
By now, the OPEC and M.E. countries seemed to have completely reversed the situation from back in 1928 (Red Line Agreement, As-Is) when oil producing countries were given a token amount of money for their oil, dictated by the terms given them by the Western companies, and negotiations were conducted mostly among the oil companies themselves, focusing on which company should have what share of the profit. But did they?
2. Renewed US assertion of political influence in Iran: support to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War.
Despite the failure of the Carter administration's ME policy, during the Reagan years, the US tried to reassert its influence in the ME through weakening Iran by supporting Iraq, and later through weakening the desire of Iraq to be a local hegemony.
The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88.
The Iranian revolution of 1979 gave Iraq an opportunity to get back at Iran over oil fields and territories under dispute. The US supported Iraq against Iran.
The Iraq-Kuwait war, 1990
Iraqi attempt to enforce OPEC quota on Kuwait, and ultimately to annex Kuwait in an attempt to become the superpower of the ME, after the downfall of communism and a global "conversion" to capitalism. This war led to direct US attack on Iraq, theGulf War of January 1991.
3. The waning role of OPEC in an age of diversification of energy sources?
| The significance of the U.S. assertion of political/military/economic power/aid in the M.E. after 1990 is that, unlike in 1973 when most M.E. oil producing countries would rally together against the U.S., in 1991 and today most of them did and will support U.S. military intervention against Iraq. Even though most Arabic countries today have strong reservations of supporting the possible U.S. attack on Iraq, that they are indebted to U.S. aid in one form or another make them inclined to keep that aid by supporting a US attack on Iraq. |
4. Future US foreign policy toward the ME:
Try to explain the decision to invade Iraq in light of the history of American foreign policy toward Iraq and the ME in general. What kind of effects the invasion, if committed, would have? Would they be the same as predicted by the administration, or not?
5. The future of the ME:
Explain how our ME policies will affect our relationship with the ME countries and the political/military/economic organizations/alliances of the ME countries.
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